← Field Notes · October 13, 2026

A keyword with 40 searches can be worth more than one with 4,000. Here is how to decide.

Published October 13, 2026
Key Takeaways
A practical method for choosing SEO keywords using customer decisions, expected economics, search intent, and existing pages rather than search volume alone.

The problem with starting at search volume

Search volume is useful, but it is usually the third or fourth number we should look at when deciding what to publish. A business owner does not get paid because somebody typed a phrase into Google. They get paid when the right person finds them, understands the offer, and takes an action that can turn into revenue.

Consider two hypothetical queries for a roofing company: “types of roofs,” with thousands of monthly searches, and “commercial flat roof replacement estimate [city],” with a few dozen. The first attracts students, homeowners browsing design ideas, contractors researching materials, and plenty of people who will never hire a roofer. The second may attract a facilities manager who has an actual building, a problem, and a budget. Neither query is automatically better. The point is that search volume alone cannot make the decision.

Work backward from a sale

Start with a completed job or customer account that you would like to win again. Record the service sold, typical contract value, gross margin, geography, lead-to-customer conversion rate, and whether the customer is likely to buy again. Use actual business figures when available. If you do not know your conversion rate, label it as an assumption rather than presenting it as fact.

Now describe what the customer needed to know before contacting you. For an HVAC replacement, the questions might concern repair versus replacement, financing, system sizing, installation timing, and warranties. For B2B software, they might concern integrations, migration, implementation risk, and pricing. Those questions are a much better starting point than asking a keyword tool for 500 phrases containing “SEO.”

Calculate an illustrative value per visitor

Here is a deliberately simple model. Suppose a service produces $3,000 in contribution margin per completed job, 10% of qualified enquiries become customers, and 4% of relevant organic visitors enquire. The expected contribution margin per relevant visitor is $3,000 × 0.10 × 0.04, or $12. At 40 relevant visitors per month, that is an illustrative $480 in expected monthly contribution margin before marketing costs.

Now suppose a broad educational keyword brings 500 visits but only 0.2% enquire, with the same 10% close rate. That traffic produces an illustrative $300 in expected contribution margin. The larger keyword wins the traffic chart and loses the economic comparison. These are example assumptions, not benchmarks or a forecast. Your real conversion and margin data may produce a completely different answer.

Use a four-column keyword decision sheet

For each candidate topic, record four things: the buyer decision it supports, evidence that the business can answer it better than current results, the next action a useful page should invite, and the existing page that should own the topic. Only then add search volume, ranking difficulty, and estimated traffic.

Candidate Buyer decision Evidence needed Best page type
Roof repair versus replacement Whether to request an inspection Condition examples, costs, limitations Decision guide linked from service pages
Commercial flat roof estimate Which contractor to contact Project scope, coverage, quote process Commercial service page
What is GEO? Whether the concept matters Definitions, examples, official guidance Evergreen educational guide
GEO services pricing Which provider or plan to choose Scope, exclusions, price, methodology Commercial pricing page

Check the search results before commissioning a new article

Open the results for the exact query in the geography that matters. Look at what is ranking and what the pages actually answer. If the results are mostly product pages, a 2,000-word dictionary entry may be the wrong format. If the results contain cost breakdowns and calculators, a vague article about “factors that influence price” is unlikely to help. Pay attention to whether Google displays a map pack, videos, shopping results, AI Overviews, or comparison pages.

Then check your own site. If you already have a page that satisfies the intent, improve it. Publishing a second page targeting the same question can split internal links, create conflicting answers, and make future maintenance harder. A new URL should exist because it serves a distinct customer decision, not because a keyword tool produced a slightly different phrase.

Do not mistake keyword difficulty for opportunity

Difficulty scores are estimates from third-party tools. They are helpful for comparing relative competition, but they do not tell you whether a page can win. A low-difficulty query with no commercial relevance is not an opportunity. A difficult query can still deserve a supporting page if your customers need the answer before buying. Treat difficulty as a planning input, not a traffic guarantee.

For NetPageTwo, our current research suggests that generative engine optimization and AI search optimization deserve strong evergreen resources, while pricing and service comparisons deserve separate commercial pages. That does not mean we should write ten versions of “what is GEO.” We should make one useful explanation, link it to evidence and examples, and use other pages for genuinely different decisions.

Measure the right outcome

Use Google Search Console to see impressions, clicks, queries, and the pages receiving them. Connect those observations to analytics and lead records where consent and tooling allow. For each page, review qualified enquiries, booked calls, sales opportunities, and actual revenue when the business can attribute them. A page can be valuable before it ranks highly if it helps a sales team answer recurring questions or makes existing traffic more likely to convert.

Review performance after enough time has passed to observe meaningful change, and document changes you made. Search demand is seasonal, rankings fluctuate, and AI answers can change between sessions. Avoid attributing every increase to the last paragraph you edited.

What to do this week

Pick your five most profitable services or customer types. For each one, identify three questions that appear before a purchase. Check whether your website answers them with specific, verifiable information. Choose one existing page to improve and one missing decision to cover. Add the expected business action and a measurement plan before writing anything. If the exercise leaves you with only one good topic, publish one good topic.

For more context, read Google’s guidance on helpful content, and see how NetPageTwo approaches search strategy and execution. Search volume should inform the work. It should not decide what your business says.

Like this:

Discover more from Net Page Two

Subscribe now to keep reading and get access to the full archive.

Continue reading